Amiti Sharma

Developments of the Ukraine Crisis

Developments of The Ukraine Crisis

Amiti Sharma

Ukraine, an Eastern European country, has a population of approximately 44,000,000 people, twenty percent of which represent Russian ethnicity. The name Ukraine directly translates to “on the border of or with,” and its surrounding nations consist of Belarus, Poland, Slovakia, and Russia. The main causes of the Ukraine crisis unfolded in 2013 when serious tension arose between Ukraine and Russia. After previous Ukraine president Viktor Yanukovych initially agreed to sign a trade agreement to converge the economic and legislative policies of Ukraine with the policies of the European Union, he postponed further preparations of this by nearly one year. On November 21, 2013, civilians of Euromaidan protested in Kiev after Ukraine was denied European integration. The involvement of the police caused the protests to become violent and continuous, drawing the line between citizens of Ukraine into two distinct groups, pro-European west and pro-Russian east. Soon after, Ukrainian guards abandoned their posts at the home of Yanukovych, causing him to flee Kiev and leave the Ukraine in a dire state.

Soon Russian troops invaded and annexed the then-autonomous, or independent and self-ruling, region of Crimea, while Ukraine’s diminishing sovereignty and strength left the country unable to retaliate. Six months after the first protests in Kiev, pro-European citizens initiated their first attack against the Russian advocates, causing the conflict between the populations to significantly rise. As the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in Donbass grew increasingly restless, they signed referendums and declared independence from Ukraine. One month later, the new Ukraine president, Petro Poroshenko, was elected to office, and signed the European Union trade agreement. Nearly two years later, and under French and German influence, Ukraine and Russia settled on a ceasefire. However, the current situation remains unstable as violence between Ukraine and Russia still continues.

Constituting factors of power are territory, geographical position, bordering nations, resources, and economic force. Ukraine and Russia share a border by law, which resulted from an agreement between states and is globally recognized by international organizations. However, when Crimea was annexed by Russia, Europe was under the impression that Russia’s intentions were to expand its territory westward into eastern Ukraine. This situation demonstrates the principle of border by power, or when Russia’s territorial limit into Western Europe will be reached at the end of the war, not necessarily having been recognized by international organizations. Ukraine’s geographical location and relationship to its largest neighboring state, Russia, is the key factor of the Ukraine crisis. Having a country split between pro-Europeans and pro-Russians caused the tug-of-war between the two parties for power over Ukraine.

Although Russia holds superior power and strength in comparison to Ukraine, it is in need of oil and gas. Crimea, a region consisting of island, desert, and mountainous landscapes holds quantities of oil, gas reserves, and three solar power plants. When Crimea was annexed, Putin secured the supply of these natural resources, including the hydrocarbons located in the maritime zones of the Black Sea near Sevastopol where the Russian naval base was set up. Russia’s pursuit of Crimea for its resources significantly increased tensions with Ukraine whom initially controlled Crimea and its raw materials. The Ukraine economy currently has much debt, and after enduring the going street protests in Kiev and the loss of Crimea, the government is under much stress, and will have to pay more for Ukraine’s energy supply. Russia’s economy was equally impacted by the crisis, and after economic sanctions were passed by the west, the value of the rouble decreased, causing Russia to face a severe financial dilemma.

The first main party involved in the crisis is the western pro-European party whom supports national unity, or non-xenophobic nationalism, and the European Union. Their desire for economic, political, and diplomatic integration with the European Union demonstrates the pro-European logic of empire ideology. The second party refers to the pro-Russian party, whom follow Eurosceptic and anti-American ideologies. The pro-European and pro-Russian parties are both conflict actors whom possess different internal cohesion and internal goals. Supporting parties involved include Germany, France, the United States, and the Parliament of Ukraine, Verkhovna Rada, which after the protests in Kiev, banned Ukraine military from the use of weapons on protestors, ultimately limiting the support of Yanukovych, and his presidential power. The HIIK represents the Ukraine crisis based on intensity level, and it is evident that as the crisis continued in duration, its intensity level increased. Categorized as a violent crisis a few months after the protests in November 2013, the violence between the main actors escalated until December 2014, when Russian president Vladimir Putin declared Ukraine’s crisis on the edge of civil war. The history of the Ukraine Crisis stems from the post-Cold war period. Towards the end of the Cold War, Europe failed to create a proper peace treaty to regulate international law and security among nations. Thus, a “gray area” developed in Europe, and the lack of stability and security posed greater threats for the future of Europe. The Yalta Conference held in 1945 with attendees of Franklin D. Roosevelt (USA), Winston Churchill (Great Britain), and Joseph Stalin (Soviet Union), made major strides in determining the re-formation of nations whom had been affected by the Cold War, and forged a period of peace throughout Europe. The Malta Summit of 1989 occurred when representatives of the two superpowers, George W. Bush (U.S.A) and Mikhail Gorbachev (Soviet Union) met to discuss the reformations, or Gorbachev’s idea of “perestroika” which inflicted Europe at that time.

This meeting began a turning point between the East and West. As the continuing conflict persisted, it became clear that a partnership between the two nations would never exist. During this time, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s power strengthen within Europe, and Russia’s power in return gradually began to diminish. This resulted in the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, which demonstrated Russia’s rebellion against NATO’s attempt to overpower the nation. Crimea’s annexation to Russia is believed to have been the first major action which developed into conflict. Although the Russians perceive this as simply being reunited with Crimea since it was given to Ukraine in 1954, Europe perceived this as a direct threat from Russia.

The prospective ending of this crisis currently remains vague, although there are several theories predicting the outcome. Based on the Russo-Georgian War and the annexation of Crimea, Russia’s intentions aim to sustain and increase their superpower status and territory. Russia’s frequent use of hard power, or the use of force and aggression through military and economic influence, against the Ukraine leads many to believe that as the conflict persists and intensifies, Putin’s next move will be to advance further and seize eastern Ukraine. The influence and alliance of pro-Russians living in east Ukraine contribute to this possibility. After Crimea’s annexation, President Barack Obama sent a warning to Putin advising him to withdraw his troops from eastern Ukraine, and publicized his plan to send lethal aid to help Ukraine’s defense. Therefore, if Russia invades Ukraine with the intention of national expansion, it is likely that the United States will come to the defense. Based on the current situation in Eastern Europe, an official ending of this crisis may only take place if Russia agrees to fully withdraw their troops from Ukraine, letting Ukraine gradually heal and regain sovereignty. However, this appears to be an unlikely event as Russia has shown no intention of retreating from Ukraine at this point.

The factors which can help explain why war is a prominent Russian approach come from two fundamental causes as classified by Thucydides, such as honor and interest. Russia believes these means can be achieved through territorial expansion and military force. To analyze why Russia became involved with the Ukraine, and consequently in the Ukraine crisis, the factors are derived from new causes of war, consisting of Russia’s quest for resources, including Crimea and the naval base, and loss of relative power from the USA, tracing back to the Malta Summit meeting.